Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Permanent damage

Determining the exact number of businesses that never reopened is complex because some closures were temporary while others were "excess exits"—permanent shutdowns above the normal yearly rate. [1, 2] 
According to official and industry data, here is the breakdown of businesses that closed and never reopened during the pandemic:
## Key Permanent Closure Statistics

* Total Permanent Closures (Initial Phase): By late August 2020, nearly 98,000 businesses listed on Yelp had closed permanently, representing roughly 60% of all businesses that had shut down since the pandemic began.
* Annual Business Exits: In the 2020 calendar year, there were approximately 1.1 million total business exits, which was about 181,000 more than the pre-pandemic yearly average.
* Quarterly Impact: During the second quarter of 2020 alone, an estimated 330,000 establishments exited permanently, which is significantly higher than the typical quarterly average.
* Excess Closures: Research from the [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/business-entry-and-exit-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-preliminary-look-at-official-data-20220506.html) suggests that "excess" establishment exits—those directly attributed to the pandemic's first year—totaled roughly 200,000. [1, 3, 4, 5, 6] 

## Sectors With the Most Permanent Closures
Based on data from Yelp and the [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2020089r1pap.pdf), specific industries faced much higher permanent failure rates:

* Restaurants: Roughly 61% of closed restaurants (nearly 20,000) indicated they would never reopen.
* Retail: About 58% of closed retail businesses (over 17,500 locations) became permanent closures.
* Beauty & Fitness: Approximately 42% of beauty businesses and a significant number of fitness clubs that closed initially did not return. [7, 8, 9, 10] 

## Why Reopening Rates Dropped
New York Fed economists noted that the longer a business remained closed, the less likely it was to ever reopen. By May 2021, an analysis found that for every additional week a business stayed shuttered, its probability of reopening dropped by 2 percentage points. [11] 

[1] [https://www.federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/business-entry-and-exit-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-preliminary-look-at-official-data-20220506.html)
[2] [https://www.sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0164070422000210)
[3] [https://www.federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/business-entry-and-exit-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-preliminary-look-at-official-data-20220506.html)
[4] [https://www.abi.org](https://www.abi.org/feed-item/nearly-60-percent-of-covid-19-business-closures-are-permanent-report)
[5] [https://www.cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/yelp-data-shows-60percent-of-business-closures-due-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-are-now-permanent.html)
[6] [https://www.businessinsider.com](https://www.businessinsider.com/small-business-closures-pandemic-less-expected-past-year-fed-survey-2021-4)
[7] [https://fee.org](https://fee.org/articles/yelp-60-of-business-closed-during-pandemic-are-permanent/)
[8] [https://www.facebook.com](https://www.facebook.com/kvoa4/posts/sound-off-its-not-known-how-many-businesses-have-failed-in-the-pandemic-but-the-/4079681958731117/)
[9] [https://en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_the_restaurant_industry_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Directory%20and%20review%20site%20Yelp%20in%20July,2020%2C%20Coca%2DCola%27s%20net%20revenues%20decreased%20by%209%25.)
[10] [https://fee.org](https://fee.org/articles/yelp-60-of-business-closed-during-pandemic-are-permanent/)
[11] [https://www.cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/small-businesses-services-sector-wont-reopen-after-closing-covid-19/)


Henry McClure
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