Time to move forward

Overview of the 2025 Topeka Mayoral ElectionThe 2025 Topeka, Kansas, mayoral election is a nonpartisan race to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Padilla, who chose not to seek reelection. A primary election on August 5, 2025, narrowed the field from six candidates to two: Topeka City Councilman Spencer Duncan and real estate developer Henry McClure. The general election is today, November 4, 2025, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time. Voter turnout in Topeka's general elections typically ranges from 20-30%, but no real-time results are available as of this morning.Primary Election ResultsIn the primary, Duncan dominated, capturing a strong majority of votes, while McClure advanced as the runner-up despite a distant second-place finish. Here's a breakdown of the unofficial results (total votes cast: approximately 7,400):Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Spencer Duncan

4,456

60.2%

Henry McClure

1,057

14.3%

James Bolden Jr.

535

7.2%

Ed Patton

497

6.7%

Chad Fay

437

5.9%

Gabriel Killman

425

5.7%

Duncan, a Topeka native and sitting council member, benefited from high name recognition and endorsements from local establishment figures. McClure, positioning himself as an anti-establishment outsider, consolidated support from voters dissatisfied with city bureaucracy and economic development deals (e.g., criticizing the Joint Economic Development Organization's $125 million in spending over 25 years).Candidate ProfilesSpencer Duncan: A policy-focused incumbent councilman emphasizing structured growth, infrastructure, and community trust. His primary win reflects broad appeal among moderate and establishment voters.

Henry McClure: A local real estate broker and self-described "dealmaker" advocating for transparency, reduced bureaucracy, and redirecting funds from economic incentives to core services like streets and water systems. He's portrayed as a far-right activist in some coverage, with a grassroots campaign highlighting "questionable deals" like the city's hotel purchase and AT&T incentives. McClure has limited online presence (e.g., low-engagement X posts) but has garnered niche support from conservative circles, including an endorsement from Kansas gubernatorial candidate Doug Billings.

Factors Influencing McClure's ChancesMcClure faces an uphill battle based on available data, but local dynamics could narrow the gap:Strengths: Anti-establishment momentum: Primary voters who opposed Duncan (about 40%) may rally behind McClure if turnout skews toward dissatisfied conservatives. He's framed the race as "beating the establishment," potentially appealing in a city with frustrations over economic development failures.

Endorsements and visibility: Support from figures like Doug Billings could mobilize right-leaning voters. Recent media appearances (e.g., on WIBW's Eye on Northeast Kansas) have highlighted his vision for citizen input.

Weaknesses:Primary performance: His 14% share suggests limited broad appeal; Duncan led by over 4-to-1.

Voter base: Topeka leans moderate-Democratic (Shawnee County voted Biden 55-43 in 2020), and Duncan's council experience gives him an edge in a low-turnout election.

Campaign resources: No public polling exists, but McClure's X activity shows minimal engagement (e.g., posts with 0-10 likes), indicating a grassroots but underfunded effort compared to Duncan's.

Assessment of McClure's ChancesQuantifying exact odds is challenging without exit polls or betting markets, but based on the primary margin and historical patterns in similar Kansas municipal races (where frontrunners often win by 20-40% in generals), McClure's chances are low—estimated at 20-30%. He could outperform if conservative turnout surges (e.g., due to national election coattails) or if scandals emerge against Duncan, but current indicators favor Duncan holding his lead. Check Shawnee County Election Office results after 7 p.m. today for official tallies. For more on McClure's platform, visit his campaign site at sncofirst.com. 

wibw.com +3

 Henry McClure  
785.383.9994
sent from mobile 📱
time kills deals